Forecast Development
Regional Forecasting (Control Totals):
The New ARC Regional Model(s)--REMI and IMPLAN
In January 2007, ARC began reviewing new forecasting models to replace the current model in use (IPEF), which is a FORTRAN open source code model developed in the 1970s. ARC selected REMI, supported by input-output data from the IMPLAN model.
Small Area Forecasting (Land Use Allocation):
The New ARC Small Area Model--PECAS
In conjunction to selected a regonal forecst model, ARC began reviewing state-of-the art land use models to replacecurrent model in use (DRAM/EMPAL, or D/E).
After a thorough evaluation, ARC decided that PECAS (Production Exchange Consumption Allocation System) was the best choice. This model is currently used, with varying degrees of completion, in San Diego, Baltimore, and Montgomery, Maryland, and a statewide model for California is underway.
The theoretical basis for PECAS is general regional economic theory. PECAS applies general Input/Output (I/O) modeling theory to subregional zones to model the economic activity (transactions) between the zones.
The modeling produces detailed economic variable output at the small scale. Given the increasing weight of future infrastructure decisions, PECAS (long-term) will be able to help policy makers understand the economic consequences of infrastructure planning and various other policy decisions.
Timeline:
A new small area forecast may be needed by early 2010. As of late 2007, data collection and development have already begun. The consultant for PECAS, HBA Specto Inc. (Drs. Doug Hunt and Dr. John Abraham of the U. of Calgary), has committed to help develop an uncalibrated (no directly usable output) model by late summer of 2008. Model calibration will be ongoing once the initial model is developed, with linkage to the new “Tour Based” travel model, possibly by 2009. A working model with usable output is to be running by January 2010.
ARC created a Technical Advisory Group (TAG) for PECAS and REMI, which had its first meeting May 1, 2008. The presentation given by Dr. Hunt at the meeting is available here. The next meetings of the PECAS/ REMI TAG will be in August and December of 2008. If you are interested in attending, please contact Jim Skinner at 404-463-3317
For more information:
Regional Forecast:
For extensive information on REMI, visit the REMI home page at
http://www.remi.com
For extensive information on IMPLAN, visit the MIG, Inc. home page at http://www.implan.com/
A brief discussion of the differences between REMI and IMPLAN may be found at http://www.nera.com/FocusArea.asp?PA_ID=35&FA_ID=55 Or see this.
For examples of IMPLAN economic impact analyses, visit http://www.economics.nrcs.usda.gov/technical/implan/index.html
Small Area Forecast:
For more detailed information about PECAS, visit any or all of the following resources:
Short theoretical outline
Definitive theoretical framework
Input Output Accounts in a Spatial Framework
A Presentation by Dr. Doug Hunt on PECAS
A Diagram of the Activity Allocation Module
A Diagram of the Space Development Module
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Last modified Thursday, May 08, 2008 9:46
